What-if Analysis | Job Hazard Analysis | Checklists | Standard Operating Procedures | Control Banding
At a Glance
What it is
A technique using brainstorming to determine what can go wrong in specific scenarios and identify the resulting consequences.
Who's involved
Appropriate for both individuals and teams.
When to use
- Simple research applications
- Complex processes
- Research environment, where teaching is the core mission
- Assessing existing processes and experiments
Training required
Minimal. Requires someone to be familiar with the equipment, processes, etc.
Overview
What will happen if toxic gases leak into a liquid pipeline? What if tank feed is increased or decreased? What if an earthquake occurs? Such questions can be critical in reducing or eliminating risks to people working in a laboratory environment.
A What-if Analysis consists of structured brainstorming to determine what can go wrong in a given scenario; then judge the likelihood and consequences that things will go wrong.
What-if Analysis can be applied at virtually any point in the laboratory evaluation process.
Based on the answers to what-if questions, informed judgments can be made concerning the acceptability of those risks. A course of action can be outlined for risks deemed unacceptable.
How to Conduct a What-if Analysis
1. Team Kickoff
The team leader walks the team through each step of the What-if Analysis. The leader may use a detailed equipment diagram along with any prepared operating guidelines. (Include guidelines for determining acceptable level of safety.)
2. Generate What-if Questions
The team generates What-if questions relating to each step of the experimental procedure and each component to determine likely sources of errors and failures.
Things to consider when developing questions:
- Potential human error
- Equipment component failures
- Deviations from the planned/expected critical parameters (e.g., temperature, pressure, time, flow rate)
Learn more about these and other factors to assess when identifying hazards.
Sample What-if Analysis Questions
3. Evaluate and Assess Risk
The team considers the list of What-if questions, one-by-one, to determine likely sources of errors. They then decide the probability of each error occurring and assess the consequences.
4. Develop Recommendations
Risk deemed unacceptable:
If the team concludes there’s a need for corrective action, a recommendation is recorded.
Risk deemed acceptable:
When probability is very low, consequences are not severe, and the action to correct the condition would involve significant cost and time, the team may note a “no recommendation” response.
5. Prioritize and Summarize Analysis
The team’s analysis is summarized and prioritized.
6. Assign Follow-up Action
Responsibilities are assigned for follow-up action(s). Consider adding a column to your What-if Analysis form to indicate the person or group responsible for each corrective action.
Toolkit
Examples
- Sample What-if Analysis questions
- Using a hotplate with flammable liquid
- Toxic or flammable gas cylinder in a fume hood
- Entering an empty lab without wearing protective glasses *
- Management of change: relocating moisture removal column *
- Inert materials and nonchemical effects: nitrogen backfill exceeds atmospheric pressure *
- Lockout or tagout principle for hazardous energy *
- Material substitution: hydrogen mixture replaced with pure hydrogen *
- Analysis of a Wolff-Kishner reaction
Templates
*Examples based on actual incidents that are useful for teaching
Review the Fundamentals
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Sample What-if Questions
Following is a list of sample What-if questions to get your group thinking in the right directions. These questions can be modified according to experiment or process.
Human Factor
Human errors occur regardless of training and experience. Human error factors may drive consideration of written SOPs, a decision for engineering controls, etc.
- What if material used is too concentrated (or diluted)?
- What if the valve/stopcock does not open (or close)?
- What if the valve(s) are opened (or closed) in the wrong sequence?
- What if inert gas is omitted?
- What if unintended materials are mixed together?
- What if readings are missed or ignored?
- What if warnings are missed or ignored?
- What if there are errors in diagnosis?
Utility
The following questions concern utilities, which are key to the support of any experiment or process:
- What if power is lost?
Consider: Automatic shutoffs and emergency power - What if power is restored automatically after loss?
Consider: Manual restarts - What if laboratory ventilation is lost?
Consider: Automatic shutoffs, emergency power, and redundant mechanical exhaust fans
Experimental or Ancillary Equipment
Consideration of failure of materials or components may result in decisions for additional controls or changes to higher rated or alternative types of materials and components.
- What if there’s unexpected over-pressurization?
Consider: Pressure relief devices and barriers; personal protective equipment (PPE) - What if glassware breaks during reaction?
Consider: Spill control; PPE - What if there’s a failure of equipment cooling?
Consider: Alarms, automatic shutoffs, and emergency shut-off procedures
Personal Protection
This should be included since, despite best efforts with hazard reviews and training, incidents will occur.
- What if a body is impacted by liquids or solids?
Consider: Physical barriers - What if someone is exposed to vapors or gases?
Consider: PPE; ventilation - What if someone is exposed to respirable particles?
Consider: Use of wet contamination control methods, ventilation controls, and respiratory protection
This collection of methods and tools for assessing hazards in research laboratories is based on the publication, Identifying and Evaluating Hazards in Research Laboratories [PDF]. The guide was published in 2015 by the Hazard Identification and Evaluation Task Force of the American Chemical Society’s Committee on Chemical Safety in response to a recommendation from the U.S. Chemical Safety Board.
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